Inconvenient Truths and Realistic Expectations about Presidential Elections

As we are in the heat of the presidential election this year, it has become increasingly clear to me that we don’t really understand some simple truths about these campaigns that might help explain what the candidates say or don’t say. These things are true of both current candidates and probably all future candidates. In this blog I hope to set more realistic expectations of these campaigns.
Try these on for “truthability”:

1. The president has very little they can do about the economy. We often think that our
   president is the most powerful person on the planet. But the global economy is massive, and the president has very few tools that can affect real changes. It is like the tail trying to wag the dog. The Federal Reserve does have certain tools that are rather blunt for controlling the economy and inflation and those tools seem to work sometimes and very slowly.
   Most polls show that folks put the economy as their #1 issue in the election. This sets up unrealistic expectations. Neither candidate will actually admit that he or she has little control over the global economy. They would lose voters faster than a can of Raid in a beehive. So, they must make promises that they can’t keep or propose solutions that will have little effect.
2. Candidates are not very clear on their specific policy plans. Pundits, journalists, and their opponents clammer for more specific plans about what candidates will actually do when they are in office. But consider this. What would happen if candidate X were to make some very specific recommendations? For example, they might say they are going to ask the Navy buy two more aircraft carriers and also ask the USDA to increase funding for school lunches by 10%. What would happen? They would immediately lose those voters that think military spending is excessive and immoral. They would also lose the fiscal conservatives who would be opposed to more giveaways. So, the safe strategy is to “Make America Great Again” or pledge to build an “Opportunity Economy”, both rather vague terms that hide a lot. The simple truth is that there is no winning upside to being more specific about their plans.
3. Many of us take our religions seriously and vote accordingly. I am going to suggest that this is not a good idea. While faith should contribute to how we view candidates and platforms, many of the issues of our day are complex and religion can easily be brought in on both sides of the debate. We need to think more broadly and pluralistically.
   One of the strengths of our founders was their ability to compromise. They had strongly held beliefs but were willing to compromise on issues in order to find workable solutions for the good of the country. I worry that by blending religion and politics we often create ideological positions that we cannot compromise on. I would like to find candidates that understand how to compromise for the sake of workable solutions. In the context of our two-party system, that might be folks willing to cross party lines to get things done.
   I would also recommend that you not be a one issue voter. Not only is this simplistic and lazy, but also rather dangerous. If you are focusing on one issue, then you are missing many issues that you may regret later. Without getting into specifics, I was a one issue voter for many years. I now can see that I was unthinkingly voting for a number of policies that I regret now. I wish I had been a more thoughtful voter.
4. At this point you might think that I am rather cynical about the political process. Certainly, I am but I would like to think I have more realistic expectations. The truth is that no candidate is perfect. We should not expect them to be. They are people like us. But what we need are candidates that have a realistic chance of fulfilling the role of president where the balance sheet of all the pros and cons tips a little in favor of what is on our own wish list. The people that say that they don’t like either candidate are just being lazy and unrealistic. I say that they should do the hard work of finding out what you can about the candidates, make your own balance sheet
   and go vote. That means thinking hard about what is important to them and also what is important to the candidates.
5. The election this year will be decided by only seven states, the “swing states”. We each hope that our vote will really count in this election for president. The truth is that for most Americans it will not. It may certainly count for all the other down-ballot races but not for president. Our presidential election is a continuous reminder to the inequity of the Electoral College. My Republican friends in New York state have not helped determine a president since Ronald Reagan. My Democratic friends have not had a voice in Kansas since LBJ won there in 1964.
   I happen to live in one of those swing states, North Carolina. And we are enjoying it. Every week or two either Trump or Harris will show up at a stadium near us and draw big crowds with lots of local coverage. I would ask my friends in New York or Kansas, when was the last time either candidate visited your state? So sad, too bad. Blame the Electoral College, the vestigial organ of a bygone era. Remember that in the Trump v Clinton election, Trump lost the popular vote by seven million but won the Electoral College by only 70,000 in three swing states, and Biden won the last election by 11 million votes but won the Electoral College by only 45,000 votes in three different swing states.

So, there you have it, five reasons that the campaign for president in the US is so odd. Please don’t be discouraged. Voting is important and many other elections, such as for representative, senator, mayor, and dog catcher make more sense and need your vote, too.
Remember, as with so many other issues we face, it’s complicated.